Fundamentals vs Technicals

Every once in a while, I like to flip the TV channels and watch Jim Cramer on CNBC. It’s not that I think that Jim Cramer is a spectacular trader, I just think he is a talented and amusing guy. The last time I tuned on the tube, CNBC’s Jim Cramer was naming his top five picks to get you through these recessionary times.

So with pencil in hand, I quickly scribbled down his top five stock picks on a piece of paper and shoved it into my pocket. I actually forgot about Mr. Cramer’s picks until today when I found this crumpled piece of paper with my handwriting on it. This paper listed the five stocks that Mr. Cramer picked on the close of business on January 8.

So here are Mr Cramer’s top 5 picks and where they closed on 1/08/09:

Caterpillar: (NYSE_CAT) - Closed @ 44.08
Home Depot: (NYSE_HD) - Closed @ 24.38
Johnson and Johnson: (NYSE_JNJ ) - Closed @ 59.02
Hewlett - Packard Company: (NYSE_HPQ) - Closed @ 37.61
Verizon Communications: (NYSE_VZ) - Closed @ 32.42

So I decided to put MarketClub’s “Trade Triangle” technology right next to Jim Cramer’s picks to compare how we both have done for the past few weeks. The one thing that struck me as odd with Mr. Cramer’s trading, is that he never seems to implement a stop loss technique. He talks about money management, but never about the use of stops. He just seems to let his positions run. For example, in the case of Caterpillar (NYSE_CAT), Mr Cramer’s first pick is down 25% from the date it was recommended. I don’t know about you, but a 25% loss in any market is enough to give me the heebie jeebies.

TRADE TRIANGLE Vs CRAMER

Admittedly that’s extreme, but if your only looking for a 25% upmove and the stock is down 25% you really have to make 50% just to get back to even. It’s the type of trading I just don’t understand. I learned a long time ago that trying to pick bottoms and tops in the markets is a loser’s game and a futile exercise that can be very expensive.

So, if Mr. Cramer is long all the stocks listed above, what positions is MarketClub’s “Trade Triangle” technology suggesting for those stocks … are we long or are we short? Well, it turns out we are short all of the above stocks and we see the trend in those stocks as still being negative.

So what’s an investor to do? You can be entertained by Jim Cramer or you can use the “Trade Triangles” to scientifically make money in the markets. The great thing about MarketClub’s “Trade Triangle” technology is that there is no emotion in the signals, it is purely a mathematical algorithm that keeps you on the side with the better odds.

A systematic market proven program approach has flaws like anything else. However, if one follows an approach like this you will make money over time. It also allows you to sleep much better at night when using a systematic program to buy and sell stocks, futures, precious metals and the forex markets.

So while Mr. Cramer is enormously popular and entertaining, I’m not sure that I would want to put my money with this type of approach. I would much rather approach the market in a systematic, scientific way knowing that the odds are in my favor.

We will follow up on these trades when we receive a buy signal or an exit-short position signal and we’ll see exactly how our “Trade Triangle” technology is working vis-a-vis Mr. Cramer.

SEE THE ACTION UNFOLD HERE

Please feel free to make comments on this post and if Mr. Cramer decides to cover his positions and you hear about it first let us know and we will make any adjustments necessary. Thanks.

I look forward to hearing from you.

Every success in the markets,

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub

Blue chip stocks - not a poker game

Investing in conservative blue chip stocks may not have the allure of a hot high-tech investment, but it can be highly rewarding nonetheless, as good quality stocks have outperformed other investment classes over the long term.

Historically, investing in stocks has generated a return, over time, of between 11 and 15 percent annually depending how aggressive you are. Stocks outperform other investments since they incur more risk. Stock investors are at the bottom of the corporate "food chain." First, companies have to pay their employees and suppliers. Then they pay their bondholders. After this come the preferred shareholders. Companies have an obligation to pay all these stakeholders first, and if there is money leftover it is paid to the stockholders through dividends or retained earnings. Sometimes there is a lot of money left over for stockholders, and in other cases there isn't. Thus, investing in stocks is risky because investors never know exactly what they are going to receive for their investment.

What are the attractions of blue chip stocks? 1. Great long-term rates of return.

2. Unlike mutual funds, another relatively safe, long term investment category, there are no ongoing fees.

3. You become a owner of a company.

So much for the benefits - what about the risks? 1. Some investors can't tolerate both the risk associated with investing in the stock market and the risk associated with investing in one company. Not all blue chips are created equal.

2. If you don't have the time and skill to identify a good quality company at a fair price don't invest directly. Rather, you should consider a good mutual fund.

Selecting a blue chip company is only part of the battle - determining the appropriate price is the other. Theoretically, the value of a stock is the present value of all future cash flows discounted at the appropriate discount rate. However, like most theoretical answers, this doesn't fully explain reality. In reality supply and demand for a stock sets the stock's daily price, and demand for a stock will increase or decrease depending of the outlook for a company. Thus, stock prices are driven by investor expectations for a company, the more favorable the expectations the better the stock price. In short, the stock market is a voting machine and much of the time it is voting based on investors' fear or greed, not on their rational assessments of value. Stock prices can swing widely in the short-term but they eventually converge to their intrinsic value over the long-term.

Investors should look at good companies with great expectations that are not yet imbedded in the price of a stock.

What's ahead for Apple? (New Video)

I was looking over several charts this past weekend and I was shocked to recognize a chart formation playing out before my very eyes. I've seen this same formation a million times before, but I just didn't want to believe it could be happening to my favorite stock, Apple (NASDAQ_AAPL). Some would call this denial.

In the past I've written extensively about Apple products on this blog. If you have read any of these postings, you'd know how crazy I am about their products.

Several months ago I discovered a major technical formation that spelled trouble for Apple. I have to admit that I was saddened by this. This formation was also picked up by our "Trade Triangle" technology. Our algorithm triggered a sell signal and has continued to suggest a short position for Apple all this time.

Watch my new video on Apple.HERE NOW

I was surprised that we've seen this market come down so easily. It seems like every time I visit an Apple store they are always busy and their products always seem to be selling well.

The question is, are we at the end of the iPod era?

Given the chart formation, the double top and pivot point, it seems we are headed lower. The Pivot Point measures down to the $40-$50 range and Apple at $90 still has a long way to go on the downside.

What caught my eye this weekend was a weekly continuation pattern to the downside and the fact that Apple closed at a new weekly low for the year. This is not a bullish sign by any stretch of the imagination.

For this coming week, I expect to see further downside pressure on Apple. I believe that we are going to be looking at the $50-60 dollar range as our target zone. Of course everything within will be tempered by our "Trade Triangle" technology. When our short-term "Trade Triangle" turns positive, we will close out short positions and take to the sidelines. In my opinion, it's going to take some time for this market to improve and turn around. The technicals are just too weak at the moment.

WATCH IT HERE

Every success in trading,

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub

Is Gold the Game Changer?

With the problems currently hitting the stock market from right, left and centre Gold is becoming more and more appealing by the day and more investors are coming to this realisation. Are You one of them? Anyway before you answer that question i will encourage you to WATCH THIS VIDEO

Wasn't crude oil supposed to go to 200 a barrel?

It's true, the rumors were circulating heavily when crude oil was trading at 145 a barrel that it was going to be hitting 200 a barrel in a matter of days or weeks at the very latest. Well, that never happened. Crude oil learned that gravity plays a part in every commodity market's life.

The pullback in crude oil, given the fact that a major hurricane named Ike is shooting for the gulf, is not so surprising given the history of the commodity markets. Often times we see pressure coming into a market months ahead of the actual news that either production has been increased or demand fluctuation has changed the dynamics of the marketplace.

Take a few minutes and watch this short video and see how we have been looking at crude oil. Afterwards, check out our track record in this market for the past 12 months.

I hope you find time to quickly browse through this video as it will certainly give you some good trading tips on how to improve your own trading.

Click Here To Watch Video

Every success trading and every success in life.

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-Creator of MarketClub.com

Wasn't gold supposed to hit $2,000 an ounce?

To many it is quite surprising that gold is getting closer to 700 an ounce rather than the 2,000 many were calling for. When gold was trading at the 1,000 level many people were expecting this market to zoom to 2,000 an ounce.

When we first suggested that gold had actually given us a sell signal we received numerous e-mails, many of which were not flattering and some were just downright ugly. "How could you short gold are you an imbecile" and that was one of the nicer emails.

Emails aside, to trade successfully in any market you must listen to the market. This is the one true voice that tells you what is going on.

During my career in the commodity markets, I have heard many stories, some of which were fabricated and some of which are true, but either have little or no bearing on the market itself. The very best indicator of all is to follow the price action which tells you when the insid ers are selling or buying. In the commodity markets you have insiders who actually produce a commodity or the actual end-user of that commodity. Everything else is speculation. These insiders have extensive networks of global information that they plug-in to their hedging models. They also have extensive experiences and know what it's like to be in the trading trenches of any market.

Take a few minutes and look at the short video I just produced to show you exactly what I mean and how the patterns are different this time in gold and why it may have still further to fall.

Watch The Video Here

Every success in the markets and in life,

Exchanging Ideas With Other Traders Through Trader's Blog

If we check the internet today we will find a thousand and one materials on stocks, futures, options and what have you...but knowing how to piece the information you have collected from these sites can be as easy or as difficult as you want it to be. There is no better way to succed in the financial world than learning how to pick the brains of those who have made a success of themselves trading the same market.

Where do you find such people? Well Adam Hewison the co-creator of Market Club has combined forces with a host of other experts to bring to you the Trader's Blog

The Traders Blog is designed to allow members share ideas with other members (traders) aroind the world and also you have the full back up of the Market Club team ready to answer your questions on any aspect of trading that you might be having problems with. As a member of the Traders Blog you get to read trading tips and strategies posted by other members, share online market analysis videos and many more.

Don't leave your trading life to luck and fate, you hold the key to your financial future today with this membership being offered to you by the great guys behind Traders Blog so take it and you be glad you did.

JOIN US AT TRADERS BLOG TODAY AND MAKE A DIFFERENCE TO YOUR TRADING